Pending Sales Plummeted in June – The Mortgage Note

Pending home sales tanked in June, reversing a three-month streak of increases.

Pending home sales were down 5.4% on the month and 0.3% YOY, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors.

All four regions saw pending sales slip from May. Figures were down YOY for the South and West, though the Northeast and Midwest registered YOY increases.

“The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.

Rates averaged 6.65% last week, their highest level since last August. Mortgage demand has moderated as rates ascend, especially for refinances.

Adding to the trouble, home prices have surged to a new all-time high despite weak sales activity and ongoing affordability pressures. More affordability woes are expected as the U.S. and Iran have re-escalated fighting, and President Trump announced more pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.

“It is worth emphasizing that it is closing activity, not contract signings, that generates economic impact. Pending contracts are only suggestive of upcoming closed deals and do not align perfectly, due to fallout rates and contract contingencies,” Yun added.

Yun noted that job gains are still looking good for the housing market. Jobs data has been revised down several times so far in 2026, but remains overall positive.

“The labor market is moderating, not collapsing, with hiring trends stable and wage growth contained,” Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, commented.

“Slowing labor demand and a dip in participation warrant monitoring, but the backdrop remains constructive for both the economy and markets.”