Divisions Cloud YAVGOP Annual Meeting – David Stringer, Publisher

On Saturday,  December 7th, Yavapai County Republicans will hold their annual meeting  against a backdrop of internal division and rivalry. The official purpose of the meeting is to select new leadership for the next election cycle  as required by the Party’s bylaws. In reality, it’s looking more like a ‘get back, get even’ contest between the county’s Republican ‘Old Guard’ and the new  Trump Republicans who have embraced the populist and nationalist message of MAGA.

The Republican sweep of the national election masks deep divisions within the Arizona GOP and Yavapai county specifically. Trump’s coattails were long enough to increase Republican margins in the state legislature and maintain Arizona’s 6/3  Republican advantage in the state’s congressional delegation. Republicans also won all three contested seats on the Corporation Commission. But the margins were exceedingly thin in some races.

The loss of a US Senate seat to the left leaning Ruben Gallego cements Democrat control of the top elected offices in the state. Republicans once controlled both of Arizona’s US  Senate seats for decades, but haven’t won a senate election since John McCain in 2016.  Democrats are firmly in control of the executive branch of state government—Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General. Notwithstanding Donald Trump’s smashing comeback, Arizona, at least at the top levels,  is more Blue than Red.

The changing demographic makeup of Arizona is a growing challenge to Republican candidates at the state level. Yavapai County and other rural counties remain conservative and solidly Republican. But their numbers are dwarfed in comparison to the population centers of Maricopa and Pima counties. This means that in statewide elections,  Republican candidates are increasingly dependent on a heavy turnout from rural areas like Yavapai and Mohave.

In the November 5th election, Yavapai County voted Republican by better than 2 to 1, and had the state’s top turnout at 86%.  But rural Arizona’s demographics skew older and whiter than the rest of the state.  This is a challenge for political messaging. Appealing to the rural conservative base of the party on issues like immigration, abortion, gun rights  and school choice risks alienating the more moderate Republican and Independent voters in urban areas.

This is the fate that befell Kari Lake. Her hard line conservative messaging  helped her win  Yavapai  County by 63%. But she died in Maricopa County with 47% of the vote  and a 100,000 vote deficit. Congressman Eli Crane won Yavapai County by a landslide with 65.81% of the vote.  But his margin in CD2 as a whole was a much more modest 54.5%, with his opponent, Jonathan Nez, President of the Navajo Nation, at 45.5%.

Prop 139 enshrining abortion rights in the Arizona Constitution passed narrowly in Yavapai County with 51.67% of the vote. But the statewide margin was 61.61%. Prop 314 which toughened state immigration enforcement and increased penalties for fentanyl passed statewide by 62.59%.  But in Yavapai County support reached nearly three quarters of all voters at 74.37%. These results suggest two key takeaways from the 2024 election: 1) Yavapai County remains Arizona’s most important Republican stronghold, and 2) the urban/rural divide is deepening.

As recently as 2017, both of Arizona’s US Senators were Republican. The GOP held the governor’s office, the top executive offices,  and healthy majorities in both houses of the state legislature.  Today, with the exception of narrow majorities in the state legislature, all of that has been swept away. At the state level,  Arizona has gone from red to blue in less than a decade.

Yavapai County’s ’Old Guard’ were part of what was once a Republican lock on political power in Arizona. Yavapai County politicians  like Ken Bennett, Steve Pierce, Karen Fann and Andy Tobin wielded influence at the state level as Senate Presidents and Speaker of the House. Winning those positions required moderation and compromise with colleagues from less conservative areas of the state. But it cost them support with their base at home.

The defeat of incumbent State Senator Ken Bennett by Trump endorsed Mark Finchem in the Republican primary is a  game changer for Yavapai County. Bennett’s loss to Finchem in the Republican primary marks the first time in his three decade career in politics that he has lost his home county. After four terms in the State Legislature, Mr. Finchem is not new to Arizona  politics.  But he is a relative newcomer to Yavapai County. Mr. Finchem’s huge victory in the Republican primary and again on November 5th solidifies his position as the top elected Republican in the county.

The county’s ‘Old Guard’, once allied with the McCain-Ducey wing of the GOP,  has been reduced to a pocket of resistance. All of this will play out at the December 7th YAVGOP meeting as the old Republican establishment contends with the county’s new MAGA majority.

A number of reports have reached eNews about discontent in the ranks of Precinct Committeemen (PCs) with recent actions by YAVGOP leadership.  One group vying for control of the party refer to themselves as the “Slate of Seven”. They were reportedly given access to proprietary contact information for the PCs  who will vote at the county meeting. This  allowed them to begin campaigning before the vetting process for other candidates had been completed.

ENews has confirmed that at  least one other candidate is running. Current YAVGOP Second Vice Chair, Gary Bowers, is running to retain his position. In response to a request by ENews to Republican Headquarters for a list of candidates for the Executive Committee, we were given the Slate of Seven. No other candidates were mentioned. It is unclear if this violated a specific prohibition of YAVGOP’s bylaws or if it was unintentional. But for some Precinct Committeemen, it has raised questions  about the fairness and impartiality of the election process.

Party leadership also extended the deadline for applying for State Committeeman, the elected representatives from each county who chose party leadership and control Republican policy at the state level. There does not appear to be a precedent for this. Again, it is not clear if there was authority for this action or if appropriate procedures were followed. It may be that there were not  enough initial applicants to fill the 90 State Committeeman positions allotted to Yavapai County.  But as of this date, YAVGOP leadership has not issued a statement explaining their rationale.

All of this has contributed to an atmosphere of confusion and distrust as YAVGOP elects new leadership for the next election cycle.

[Editor’s Note:  This article will be updated if  additional information becomes available. We encourage those with definite  knowledge of these matters to contact us.]