Kitchen Table Finances And Housing: The Math Isn’t Working – The Mortgage Note

This year’s housing market hasn’t lived up to the expectations of industry leaders in lending and real estate, and no matter how it’s sugarcoated, the crux of the problem is that the math isn’t working for average Americans anymore.

Housing analysts were expecting a gain of more than 3% for sales of previously owned homes in April, but that number rose by just 0.2%. New home sales fell by 6.2% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 622,000 that month.

Leaders in the mortgage industry have not hidden their disappointment. During the Q1 26 earnings call held by Rocket Companies, Varun Krishna, who is the CEO of Rocket and interim CEO at Redfin, told investors that the second-quarter activity they were hoping for was not materializing in the initial data they were seeing.

“Rocket is not waiting for the market to get easier. We are the company making homeownership easier by creating our own opportunity through distribution and technology,” Krishna said in a statement. “Hard market. Stronger Rocket.”

But can companies dependent on the housing market overcome the economic realities many Americans are facing?

Data released on May 26 from Redfin – which was acquired by Rocket Companies in July of last year – shows that Americans needed to earn $116,780 to afford the typical U.S. home for sale in April.

Redfin analysts extimate the estimated median household income was $87,599 in April, and their press release states they consider a home affordable if a buyer taking out a mortgage would spend no more than 30% of their income on their monthly housing payment.

“The income required to afford a home soared in 2022 and 2023: Home prices skyrocketed amid the pandemic homebuying frenzy, then mortgage rates doubled. Now, the tide is slowly turning, with the income needed to afford a home consistently dropping since October 2025. Still, it’s about $29,000 higher than the typical U.S. household income of roughly $88,000,” the press release states.

At the same time, mortgage rates have risen this spring, pushing move-up and first-time buyers away, even if they are willing to make the jump.

“House hunters are backing off mainly because mortgage rates are rising, with the daily average hitting a 10-month high of 6.75% last week. Higher rates – along with rising home-sale prices – brought the median monthly housing payment to $2,637, the highest level in 11 months,” a May 28 press release from Redfin states.

Panelists at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Miami who were participating in the “Kitchen Table Finances and the Affordability Crisis” session on June 2 were asked about the Redfin chart and affordability.

That panel included Nicole Booth, head of advocacy at Zillow; Michael Micheletti, chief marketing and communications officer at Unlock; and Chris Birk, vice president of mortgage insight and education at Veterans United Home Loans.

Micheletti said the problem is that life is expensive, and costs are rising every day. That’s why families aren’t moving into larger houses as they grow and first-time homebuyers are stuck sitting on the sidelines for another spring season.

“We always talk about housing affordability. I think the conversation is changing to household affordability and what customers and homeowners are giving up when they get into that house, ” Micheletti said. “The average American homeowner, in their household, they are under duress, whether it’s taxes, insurance, child care, health care, all of these things are compressing on the household, and it’s causing them to make decisions that they don’t want to have to make right now.”

At Unlock, they are helping people access the equity in their home so they can pay for expenses such as child care and health care.

Booth said that there is demand for reform out there, and as a policy professional, she’s looking for solutions to the nation’s homebuying issues as America celebrates its 250th birthday this year.

“What does housing and homeownership look like in the next 250 years? I personally hope it looks very different,” Booth said. “There’s an opportunity for us here to take a look at how the system is built today. It was built and layered over and over. You talk about regulations, industries, like all of this is overlaying, and it creates an awful consumer experience.”

She said there are benefits to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which is a bipartisan bill designed to encourage construction; redefine manufactured homes, making them easier and less expensive to produce; and limit the influence of institutional investors in single-family housing.

Booth said when Zillow talks with regulators and legislators, they emphasize education and transparency. And a Zestimate is an educational tool consumers can use to get a sense of how much their house could be worth – not an appraisal.

That plays into public policy because many Americans want their homes to be worth a certain amount of money and are unwilling to see the housing market dip because that would mean they could lose the equity they perceive they have due to tools like Zestimates. At the same time, with all other costs rising and mortgage rates remaining above 6%, unless the value of houses come down, the average person will be priced out of a home for the foreseeable future.

One thing that could help is more consumer education. A Veterans United Home Loans survey found that 66% of consumers – both veterans and civilians – think the Federal Reserve sets mortgage rates and 61% think the government dictates what interest rates lenders can offer.

Birk said consumers don’t need to understand the finer details of what officials at the Federal Reserve do, but they do need to know that the government doesn’t set rates and shopping for a mortgage can save borrowers thousands of dollars.

“There are people right now who are sitting on the sidelines who could absolutely start building wealth right now. They just don’t know that they can,” Birk said.

Birk said rates will likely go down at some point, but he predicted the savings benefit will be offset by increased housing prices. He encourages veterans to learn more about their benefits for homebuying, especially since VA loans require people to have flexibility in their budgets.

“VA wants to see a minimum amount of money at the end of each month,” Birk said. “It doesn’t guarantee that you can make that payment every month if the air conditioning breaks or your car breaks down, but it gives a bit of a baseline that other loan programs don’t.”

The National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Miami will continue on June 3 with a look at America’s housing shortage and an economic forum.

[Editor’s Note: Kimberley Haas was the moderator of the NAREE panel “Kitchen Table Finances and the Affordability Crisis.”]