It’s one of the most fiercely contested Presidential Elections ever, and looks to be coming down to the wire. Less than two weeks (at time of writing) until the United States goes to polling stations, and Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have been neck-and-neck most of the way, according to most news sources. But now, perhaps the Harris ‘bounce’ has finished, and Trump appears to be edging the race in key swing states.

Having said that, polls can be wrong. Very wrong. And in the topsy-turvy world of American politics, it seems nothing is over, even when the fat lady has finished her encore and gone home. Let’s have a look at the latest from the race to the White House.

End of the bounce?

Following Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the televised debate, he decided to step down from the candidacy, and veep Kamala Harris moved into the fray. Initially, her numbers were great, buoyed by a wave of optimism over her nomination and some seriously strong campaign messages, culminating in a jubilant Democratic convention. Ms. Harris is a gifted orator, and her confident delivery probably helped with the bounce after Biden’s bumbling, and renewed hope that Trump could be defeated.

But all things come to an end, and it now seems Trump is the one who is gaining momentum as the bounce fades. This is a crucial part of the campaign, where momentum is key, and if Trump maintains it until the polling stations he could be well placed to regain the Presidency.

Global matters

The US election also has major echoes around the world in many ways, and in turn, global matters influence voter patterns, depending on US foreign policy, and world events affecting the US economy. So, as usual, the world will be watching. And as the US seems to turn everything into mass entertainment, as if it were a sporting event, gamblers around the world can find the

latest election betting odds on various aspects of proceedings, from overall winner to individual state wins.

On a more serious note, recent foreign policy is heavily impacting some voter patterns — namely the Biden administration’s failure to reign in Israeli aggression in Gaza and Lebanon. Michigan is a key state in the election, and the 300,000 Arab Americans living there are frustrated and angry with Biden, and by extension, Harris. There is talk of “punishing” the Democrats over the situation: Samraa Luqman, who considers herself left of the Democratic Party, says she is not only voting for Trump but is actively encouraging others to do so.

“I believe there has to be accountability for all the lives lost,” she said. “I do not forgive the Democrats for it, and I will not be scared into voting for them.”

Trump gathers nostalgia vote

So, why is Trump gaining? Some reports say that his Presidential approval ratings are currently higher than at any time during his Presidency, which shows that voters are feeling nostalgic for the former POTUS. More worrying for Harris and the Democrats is that Trump appears to be gaining in the ‘Blue Wall’ states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – as well as among black and Latino voters.

Trump’s gains can also be seen differently — Harris may have been picking up marginal Democrat voters, those who would usually vote blue, but were put off by Biden’s age and ability to hold top office. So she may have been simply regaining votes, rather than winning new ones.

Swing States

All tight elections, including the last one, are won and lost in swing states. Once again, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize, with 19 electoral college votes available, and the state has seen controversy and drama in recent years. Who could forget the ‘symbolic end of Trump’s Presidency’ as Rudy Giuliani gave a speech at the Four Seasons Total Landscaping garden center? This time, however, the state is being edged by Trump by one point.

Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin see Harris just in front, with North Carolina another key battleground state just going for Trump. Arizona and Georgia have a small Trump margin too (+2). But it must be noted that there are far fewer state polls than national polls, and that means a lot less data to go by. Also, the margins are so tiny that it could swing either way in the short time left before election day. It seems that all we can be sure of is a night and a day (or more) of high political drama.

The message from the pollsters then? Well, it’s unclear. If you wanted to put some money on a winner, then perhaps a (marginally) better bet is on Trump to win by a fake-tanned nose.

Maybe. Don’t put your house on it though.