What will the future of work look like, and how much do people worry about it?
ChatGPT’s creator, Sam Altman, recently testified in front of a Senate worried about the potential for job displacement prompted by artificial intelligence. “There will be an impact on jobs,” Altman said during his testimony, emphasizing the need for governments to support affected workers.
But how do workers themselves feel about the effect of technology on jobs?
In a recent Center for Growth and Opportunity policy brief, I provide a snapshot of what workers think about technology’s effects on their careers with new survey results. Results reveal workers are worried about automation and skills that will play an essential role in the future.
I first use open text boxes to capture respondents’ unfiltered thoughts about future labor market disruptions. Respondents’ answers show they know the challenges that innovation and technological advancement are likely to bring for workers. Almost half of respondents (48 percent) mentioned technological evolution as one of the primary future challenges for American workers. Concerns about technology and automation surpassed worries about low wages (20 percent), the pandemic (9 percent), or globalization (7 percent). Respondents also highlighted the importance of skills (12 percent) in the future.
I then measure, on a scale from 0 to 10, how worried respondents are about several labor market shocks. The average person surveyed said they are worried at a level of 6.5 regarding new technologies’ effect on American jobs. Yet, the figure drops to 3.9 when asked about its consequences on their jobs. Respondents clearly identify technological advancement as a critical future challenge but tend to be more worried about the effect of technology on jobs in general than their employment.
Why does the typical respondent believe they are better equipped to confront the coming technological changes compared to the rest of the population? One possibility is that specific categories of workers are excessively optimistic about their vulnerability to automation. In that case, there may be a need to design more targeted programs to support those at risk of being left behind.
On the other hand, experts and policymakers could also be overly pessimistic about workers’ ability to adapt and overestimate the job displacement effects of automation. For example, work by James Bessen shows how in some cases, automation does not displace workers and, in fact, increases employment. When ATMs were rolled out in the 1990s and early 2000s, many predicted that bank tellers would become obsolete. But in fact, employment for bank tellers rose dramatically in the following decades as banks became more productive and were able to open more branches.
Looking toward the future, it will be essential to understand which skills will likely remain relevant. Automation does not affect all workers equally, but learning skills that can help leverage the productivity of new technologies is expected to help workers stay competitive. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, occupations in computer and information technology are projected to grow 15 percent from 2021 to 2031, a much higher rate of growth than the economy.
To better address future labor market challenges, we will need to find ways to help workers learn skills that help them take advantage of the ever-changing technology landscape. Employers, public policy and educational institutions will all need to play a role to ensure we address future labor market challenges.
