Back to School (Choice) Like Never Before – Inside Sources

As kids nationwide return to the classroom, nearly 2 million of them are walking through the doors of a school their family chose, not the one assigned by ZIP code, thanks to a school choice program in their home state, whether that’s a scholarship, a tax credit, or an education savings account. 

Texas will see more than 90,000 students use the state’s brand-new Texas Education Freedom Accounts for the first time this fall, the largest day-one rollout of any school choice program in history, part of a broader wave of expansion across statehouses this school year.

That momentum is real, and it’s only a preview of what’s coming. Mark your calendar for January 1, 2027, when the federal Education Freedom Tax Credit opens for business, carrying the potential to bring school choice to every state.

I got a taste of that future recently at a “Back to School and Education Freedom” event at the White House. President Trump made the case most Americans already believe: a child’s future shouldn’t be dictated by ZIP code but by their family’s ability to find a learning environment that fits. 

That afternoon, it was hard not to feel optimistic about where K-12 education and school choice are headed. It’s a landmark achievement, decades in the making, putting real educational opportunity within reach of tens of millions of kids, regardless of which state they call home.

Just how many kids could be eligible? A new analysis from the American Federation for Children, the first to map Education Freedom Tax Credit eligibility across all states, puts the number at 51.7 million children, 91.7 percent of the entire K-12 population, should every state opt in. For states with existing choice programs, opting in adds fuel to the fire once the credit launches in 2027. For states without one, it’s their first real shot at bringing school choice home. Either way, it’s an easy call.

So far, 31 states have opted in or signaled they plan to. Donors anywhere in the country can claim the credit, but whether those dollars stay and help kids in their home state depends on governors. The 19 states plus D.C. still on the sidelines can no longer claim ignorance: parents there can claim the credit personally, but their kids are shut out of the very scholarships it funds. We now know what that costs, state by state: 5.9 million kids waiting in California, 1.9 million in Illinois, 1.8 million in Pennsylvania, 1.5 million in Michigan, and more.

Opting in isn’t a guarantee every eligible child gets a scholarship — that still hinges on donor participation — but it’s the prerequisite for everything else. Without it, nothing happens. 

The 31 states that have acted account for 30.9 million eligible kids, just under 60 percent of the national total, leaving 21 million children in limbo across the remaining areas. Eighteen of those states have no private school choice program to fall back on, meaning for those families, the Education Freedom Tax Credit isn’t a bonus; it’s the only door, and it’s still locked.

Those 20.8 million kids aren’t an abstraction. Their shot at opportunity comes down to whether their governor is willing to sign a piece of paper, which is why Colorado’s governor, Jared Polis, said he’d “be crazy not to.”

So why the delay? In most holdout states, it isn’t a lack of information; it’s unions spending heavily to protect their stranglehold on where education dollars flow rather than empowering families. The Education Freedom Tax Credit costs states nothing and will benefit kids in public and private schools alike. Failure to opt in is indefensible, and parents will remember it when they head to the polls.

Every governor will choose the number that defines his or her legacy: how many students they opened doors for, or how many they shut out. With millions of kids still waiting for education freedom, the only question is whether remaining governors will deny or deliver school choice for families.