Election Forecaster Moves Texas and Iowa Senate Races to Toss Ups – The Epoch Times

A voting booth inside of the United Methodist Church of Pella, Iowa, on June 2, 2025. Jacki Thrapp/Epoch Times

The Cook Political Report on Aug. 20 moved the Senate races in Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up, its most competitive rating, and shifted both states’ governor’s races in the Democrats’ direction.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for the Cook report, wrote that Republicans keep a structural advantage on this year’s map and that Democrats “still need almost every key race to break their way.” Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber.

In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico is the Democratic nominee against Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general.

Taylor wrote that Talarico’s polling against Paxton has been more consistently competitive than Beto O’Rourke’s was against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in 2018, that public and private Republican surveys have shown the race tied, and that Paxton has trailed a generic Republican in GOP polling. She noted that Republicans spent $59 million trying to stop Paxton’s nomination in Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) primary.

Taylor also wrote that Talarico carries liabilities Republicans intend to use against him, including his public comments on gender, and that millions of dollars in advertising aimed at defining him have yet to land. A libertarian candidate on the general election ballot could draw Republican voters who will not vote for either major-party nominee, she wrote.

Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for the seat being vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), will oppose Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Taylor wrote that the shift reflects the political environment rather than Hinson’s campaign, which she described as strong and well-funded. She cited tariffs as well as rising costs for fertilizer and diesel as pressures on the state’s agriculture economy, and noted that the Senate Leadership Fund has committed $33 million there.

Turek, a former Paralympic gold medalist in basketball who uses a wheelchair, released an advertisement on Aug. 19 citing 700 votes he cast with Republicans in the legislature and saying he would work with President Donald Trump.

A Republican operative told The Epoch Times that national Republicans have been sounding the alarm since last year that midterms are hard, and have been firm that not a single race should be taken for granted.

Internally, groups like the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund have had Iowa listed as a battleground race for Senate control since last February. The operative told The Epoch Times that Republicans still believe they will hold onto control of the U.S. Senate.

“James Talarico and Josh Turek are out-of-touch socialist sympathizers who want to raise taxes, reopen the border, and push their radical transgender agenda,” NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez told The Epoch Times in a statement. “Republicans are united behind Ken Paxton and Ashley Hinson, and we’re going to fight to do whatever it takes to ensure they are elected in November.”

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times before publication.

The forecaster also moved the Texas governor’s race from Solid to Likely Republican. Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa with a $67 million war chest, more than 20 times the amount raised by Hinojosa.

Taylor cited an internal Hinojosa survey by GBAO showing Abbott at 49 percent and Hinojosa at 48 percent, and wrote that Democrats see openings on school vouchers, data centers, and the redistricting plan Abbott pushed through the legislature.

Iowa’s open governor’s race moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Taylor wrote that state auditor Rob Sand has held a consistent lead outside the margin of error over Republican Zach Lahn in public and private polling, and that Sand has run a campaign playing down party labels.

Taylor cautioned that summer polling can overstate the position of the party out of power and that Republicans hold a financial advantage that could revive their candidates. She also wrote that Democrats are in a worse position in Michigan with Abdul El-Sayed as their nominee, and that it is difficult to see the party winning the majority while losing that seat.

The Democratic Governors Association and Republican Governors Association did not respond to requests for comment from The Epoch Times before publication.