Today: Nov 21 , 2018

Voter Turnout High and Critical
Featured

05 November 2018  

Republicans aren’t making any assumptions about this election.

Governor Doug Ducey, Representative Martha McSally (who is also the Republican Senate candidate), Secretary of State candidate Steve Gaynor and State Superintendent of Schools candidate Frank Riggs stopped in at Gateway Mall for a pancake breakfast on Sunday morning. Governor Ducey and Representative McSally will return tonight (Monday) for a rally on the Courthouse steps at 6 PM, continuing with the tradition started by Senator Barry Goldwater and continued by Senator John McCain. 

Martha McSally and Governor Doug Ducey serve breakfast on Sunday morning at the Gateway Mall.

Representative Paul Gosar was also on hand to serve at the pancake breakfast.

More than 300 people came to the last-minute pancake breakfast to hear from the Governor and other Republican candidates.

It was being touted as a Victory Tour, but there was a decided push to make sure the Republicans have turned in their ballots. You can watch the breakfast speeches here:

Polling

A new poll has been released by OH Predictive Insights on Monday morning, showing McSally ahead by just 1%. Why the sudden change? According to OH Predictive Insights:

"The key comes down to Sinema’s voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day. OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema’s voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally’s voters have done the same. This is ultimately a breakdown by region, where 86 percent of Pima County’s voters have already voted. Only 74 percent of those in the rural areas have done so, with more being Democrats."

 

Yet, according to Rasmussen Reports, 60% of likely Democrat voters say they are likely more willing to let others know how they voted, compared to only 49% of Republicans. In the Noble poll, 3% of those asked refused to say one way or another who they supported.

Background

Update: 

 

Jump into your time machine and go back a few years. Four, to be exact. In 2014, Doug Ducey was elected Governor. He wasn’t the only Republican elected, all statewide offices were won by Republicans. 

Now, in 2018, the Democrats have upped their game, increasing their registration numbers by more than 2%. Republicans have only increased their registration amounts by one-tenth that amount. Is that enough to make a difference this year? 

Looking at the numbers:

  • Almost 500K new voters have registered. 44.8% appear to have registered as Democrats; 36.16% appear to have registered as Republicans. 
  • Republicans still hold more than a 10% advantage over Democrats (136,587). 
  • Independent voters have dropped percentage-wise in voter registration by 2.44%.
  • The change in Independent voters seems to have gone mostly to the Democrats, which are up 2.05%.
  • There are nearly 5x more Libertarian voters than Green voters. 

(Note: in 2014, the Green Party was not an official party for the General Election. In 2018, the Americans Party was not an official party for the General Election.)

See 2014 registration information here.

See 2018 information here.

Yavapai County voters are often considered the stronghold of the Arizona Republican party. The Republican Women of Prescott (RWOP) organization is the largest Republican women’s organization in the nation. Yavapai County consistently has the highest voter turnout in the state. So, what do those same numbers look like in Yavapai County?

  • Yavapai County has added 17,424 new voters to their registration.
  • Of those, 11,909 are Republican, a 3.09% increase. Democrats increased their registration by 4,327, a 0.6% increase.
  • Independent voters dropped by nearly 4%, with most going to the Republicans.
  • In 2014, there were 123,301 registered voters in Yavapai County. That year, they had a 61.09% voter turnout, with 75,326 ballots returned. 

This year, in 2018, there are 140,724 registered voters in Yavapai County. 

 

 

Lynne LaMaster

Lynne LaMaster is the Founder and Editor of the eNewsAZ Network of websites. She asks a lot of questions! In her spare time, she loves photography, cooking and hanging out with her family.