This week has been a very active monsoon period, with anywhere from 0.25 - 4” of rain measured around the Quad City area and much of Yavapai County. As a result of the recent rains, and the forecasts showing continued rainfall for at least the next week, the National Forest Service has lifted the fire restrictions and area closure as of 8 am today. (https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/prescott/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD586857)
The atmosphere is currently very moist, but the winds are very weak, leading to slow-moving storms (heavy rain producers). This has prompted a number of special weather statements from the National Weather Service and a few flash flood warnings, including the area of the Goodwin Fire near Mayer, where 0.75” of rain fell in 30 minutes today.
Over the weekend, the high pressure will strengthen to our north and west. This will lead to a gradual strengthening of the winds in the middle and upper atmosphere from the north to northeast. The result will be slight drying of the atmosphere into next week, thus reducing the probability of thunderstorms to a certain extent. With slight drying will come warmer temperatures as we will see more sunshine in the morning to early afternoon hours each day. However, the stronger mid-level winds will also mean an increase in the wind shear in the lower atmosphere, helping to organize the storms that form into lines and propagating the thunderstorms toward the southwest each afternoon, especially Monday – Wednesday. Watch for the continued potential for heavy rain, strong, gusty wind, and small to moderate hail with the storms this weekend into next week.
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Official National Weather Service forecast