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Active Weather, Cooler Temperatures This Week

23 September 2019   Dr. Mark Sinclair

Look for rain, thunderstorms and possible flooding today. 

Forecast table:

Navigate on the map to your location and click. 

Weather Discussion:

Active weather pattern today. Tropical moisture associated with the remnants of what was Tropical Cyclone Lorena has moved into south central Arizona ahead of an unseasonally strong trough diving south from the Great Basin. This has produced a Gulf surge of moisture moving northward into southwest Arizona. High dew points (i.e., moisture) in the upper 60s over southern Arizona are advancing rapidly northward, and should produce thunderstorms in the Prescott region today, starting about 10 am this morning, and continuing through the afternoon hours. Some of these storms will be severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible. Precipitation totals will be in the 0.2 to the north of our region to 2.00 inch range further south, with even higher totals near high terrain (see for continuously updated HRRR storm totals), with potential for some flooding. Largest storm totals will be northeast of Phoenix.

For the rest of the work week, expect cooler temperatures with highs in the low seventies, with isolated chance showers and thunderstorms each day.  Another pulse of storms is possible Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of another strong trough.

Additional notes for the weather nuts out there:

Some big, beautiful thunderstorms today. Driving to work this morning, I spotted some gravity waves producing undulating cloud formations downstream from a thunderstorm to the west. These occur when an active thunderstorm top perturbs the tropopause and causes atmospheric waves to propagate downstream from the thunderstorm, rather like waves that spread away from a rock dropped in a river.

Have another wonderful week,


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology ( Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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