The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
Troughing off the West Coast will keep the upper-level flow southwesterly into California and zonal (meaning from west to east) across Arizona for the next week or more. This is a very wet pattern for central – northern California, with over 30” of precipitation (liquid water equivalent) and well over 5’ of snow possible in some of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada mountains during the next week! This pattern will provide a good deal of drought relief for central – northern California.
Arizona will generally be dry despite the variable cloudiness moving across the state from west to east. However, there will be a couple of weak, progressive troughs that will propagate across Arizona within the next week. The first one will bring windy conditions and a chance of light rain showers on Thursday – Thursday night, possibly changing to light snow showers on Friday.
Another trough could affect us on Monday – Tuesday of next week for another possible round of light showers.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast