Today: Nov 20 , 2019

Colder Temperatures on the Way
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15 November 2016   Dr. Curtis James

Boots, check. Scarves, check. Jackets, check. Colder weather is on the way.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Expect two more days of temperatures well above normal Monday and Tuesday, with near record highs on Tuesday. Then, starting on Wednesday, it is going to feel a lot more like autumn! On Wednesday, an approaching upper-level trough and associated surface trough and cold front will approach the state. Expect southwest wind of 20-30 mph on Wednesday. Wednesday evening to Thursday, expect partly cloudy skies and significant cooling with the passage of the cold front. Temperatures from Tuesday – Thursday will drop by about 20 degrees. Overnight lows on Thursday night – Friday morning will drop into the mid 20s, so prepare your gardens and your exposed water lines for a hard frost!

Little or no precipitation is expected with this cold frontal system as it will likely be a bit too fast moving to tap into enough moisture to produce measureable precipitation. However, another storm system is possible next Monday night – Tuesday and could bring an opportunity for some much needed precipitation.


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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