Today: Jan 23 , 2020

Thunderstorms likely Monday - Wedneday, Decreasing Thursday-Weekend

02 August 2016   Dr. Curtis James

Expect widespread monsoon activity for a few days.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

With a moist airmass in place over Arizona and high pressure centered to our north, expect widespread thunderstorm activity these next few days. In addition, a disturbance to our east will help to create lifting over northern Arizona and promote thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms that develop will tend to be slow-moving, leading to locally heavy rain (and possibly some local flooding in some areas). Other possible hazards include small hail and lightning.

A disturbance moving from west to east across the Great Basin on Thursday – Friday will create another drying and warming trend for the coming weekend, causing the chances for thunderstorms to diminish once again.

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology ( Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube