The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
With a moist airmass in place over Arizona and high pressure centered to our north, expect widespread thunderstorm activity these next few days. In addition, a disturbance to our east will help to create lifting over northern Arizona and promote thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms that develop will tend to be slow-moving, leading to locally heavy rain (and possibly some local flooding in some areas). Other possible hazards include small hail and lightning.
A disturbance moving from west to east across the Great Basin on Thursday – Friday will create another drying and warming trend for the coming weekend, causing the chances for thunderstorms to diminish once again.
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Official National Weather Service forecast