The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
A series of weather disturbances moving across the Great Basin this past couple of weeks has caused the upper-level ridge to flatten out over northern Mexico and southern Arizona, with breezes at the surface and winds aloft primarily from the west. This flow pattern is a very dry pattern for us, and has brought sunny skies.
For next week, however, the upper-level pressure ridge will amplify over New Mexico and will usher southerly flow to southeasterly flow aloft. Moisture content in the atmosphere will gradually increase Monday – Wednesday of next week, with a chance of thunderstorms each day starting about Tuesday. Hopefully, we will have some welcome relief for our extreme wildfire conditions.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast