The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
Don’t let the blue skies this morning fool you. One more day of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is expected today. The atmosphere remains moist and with plenty of sunshine to warm the surface, combined with cool air aloft, the air will become unstable this afternoon and evening, for a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms.
For Tuesday – Thursday, expect warmer and drier conditions, although windy conditions be developing in advance of another storm system. The forecast models are consistently predicting an upper-air trough deepening along the West Coast later this week, becoming a cut-off low and slowly rotating across the state from the west Friday – Sunday (just in time for ERAU graduation). This system will bring cooler conditions for the coming weekend, with another round of scattered rain showers or weak thunderstorms possible. In some of the more intense showers this weekend, we could see brief periods of wet snow or snow pellets.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast