The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
A strong cold front is moving southeastward across northern Arizona today, and is a bit further south than was previously forecast. Winds will continue to strengthen this afternoon, with sustained winds rising to near 30 mph, gusting to near 40 mph. Light rain showers and snow pellets/graupel have already been observed around the Prescott area today, and there will be a chance of showers or weak thundershowers as the frontal band swings across Yavapai County this afternoon. One can see this band of showers off towards the northwestern horizon and at the following link: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FSX-N0Q-1-12.
There will be a series of disturbances moving across the Southwestern U.S. later this week and this coming weekend, with breezy and cooler-than-normal conditions expected all week. The best chance for measurable rain will be Thursday – Friday and again Sunday (although there is large uncertainty in the weekend forecast).
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast