Today: Nov 13 , 2019

Chance of Showers & Thundershowers At the End of the Week
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05 April 2016   Dr. Curtis James

Lovely temperatures now, but look for possible rain at the end of this week.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

A subtropical jet will develop over the Southwestern U.S. later this week and usher two storm systems across the region that could produce rain showers or thunderstorms later this week / early next week. The first system will be a slow moving, cut-off low pressure system over the subtropical Pacific Ocean that will drift northeastward into Arizona Thursday night - Saturday. This first system will bring a very moist airmass and will be capable of producing heavy rainfall in some areas, with the possibly of thundershowers, from Thursday night - Saturday morning. It will also produce breezy, mostly cloudy weather conditions.

Another trough could move through from the west (this time cooler and faster moving) and could lift any moist air left over from the first storm system for a continued chance of showers or thunderstorms on Sunday - Monday.

A third storm system could affect us by the middle of next week, but this possibility is still very uncertain at this time.

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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