The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
The West Coast blocking ridge is finally flattening out this weekend, bringing a return to more seasonal temperatures. The subtropical jet is becoming more developed, with a deepening large-scale upper-level trough with two embedded shortwave troughs. Winds will pick up today in advance of the first shortwave trough, which will skirt across Arizona on Sunday night, with partly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers in northern Arizona. A second cooler and deeper trough will dig southeastward into northern Mexico Monday to Tuesday. Most of the lifting with this second trough will be focused to our south, so the chance of rain showers will be slight on Monday to Tuesday morning. Total rainfall amounts between Sunday night and Tuesday will likely be around 0.1” or less, so this will not be a significant precipitation event.
Another trough is expected to move through the area on Friday, but at this time the chance of rain showers appears to be minimal.
Have a great spring break!
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast