The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
Disturbances today, Tuesday, and again late this week will bring some partly cloudy skies and/or breezes but precipitation is currently not expected this week. High pressure should dominate and temperatures will be near or above normal.
Will this El Niño winter be El No Show this year (a phrased coined by Dr. Mark Sinclair, chair of our Meteorology Program)? So far, our seasonal precipitation has been 50-75% of normal. However, these next few months are likely to be wetter-than-normal, as El Niño tends to produce a greater likelihood of precipitation than normal during the months of Dec, Feb-Apr. Here’s hoping that Arizona and California receive many more wet storm systems before the heat of summer arrives!
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast