The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
A large upper-level high pressure ridge will persist along the West Coast for at least another week or so. However a cold upper-air trough will dig southward on the eastern side of the ridge into New Mexico these next few days. An associated surface cold front will move southward into Arizona on Wednesday, bringing partly cloudy to cloudy skies today through Wednesday, breezy to windy conditions Wednesday – Thursday, and pronounced cooling of 10-15 degrees on Wednesday with a slight chance for rain showers.
Temperatures will gradually warm back up beginning on Thursday, but a weaker subtropical low is expected to develop off the Baja of California and could help to break down the West Coast ridge and affect our weather next week. Stay tuned.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast