The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
A 4.7-magnitude earthquake was recorded last night, with the epicenter 7.5 miles north of Sedona near Oak Creek Canyon along Highway 89A. There was a rock fall recorded along the highway, but no damage to structures has been reported. The earthquake was felt as far away as Flagstaff. Though earthquakes are rare in Arizona, there are some fault lines and a few major earthquakes have been recorded in Arizona (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/arizona/history.php). One earthquake was recorded in Chino Valley on 4 February 1976 with a magnitude (ML) of 5.1 (I remember experiencing the tremors from that quake).
This week we will see considerable cloudiness. Large-scale upper-level troughing off the West Coast will direct moist flow and a series of disturbances across the Southwestern U.S. Most of the lifting and precipitation will be along coastal California (where rain is sorely needed right now). But, it appears that some modest lifting and moisture content will combine in the Prescott area for a slight chance of light rain showers tonight through Thursday. Another fast-moving trough will move through on Saturday for another chance of light precipitation. Temperatures will be too warm for snow to fall to the altitude of the Prescott area. Snow levels will generally be above 9,000’.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast