The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
A strong ridge of high pressure is currently shifting eastward from Pacific Ocean into the Western U.S. The ridge axis will approach Arizona around Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), bringing sinking air, sunny skies and dry, unseasonably warm weather. Highs should approach 70 deg. F and morning lows will be at or above freezing through about Friday.
For the weekend, the ridge will flatten out and temperatures will gradually cool down. Some of the forecast models for early next week indicate a trough of low pressure moving into the Southwest on Monday to Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about next week’s weather, so stay tuned for more details next week.
For now, have a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the nice, warm weather.