The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
A progressive upper-level trough with associated surface trough will develop and move from northwest to southeast across Arizona on Friday. It will be a fast-moving system but will tap into sufficient water vapor and produce enough lifting for scattered light rain showers to develop across Yavapai County on Friday, with snow flurries above 6,500 feet elevation. Accumulations, if any will be light. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the lower 50s.
The weather will remain unsettled and become breezy Saturday – Sunday as a series of weaker disturbances moves through behind the first trough, but precipitation will be unlikely.
Next week, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over the Southwest for beautiful sunny weather and slightly above normal temperatures by midweek.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast