Today: Nov 20 , 2019

Unsettled and Colder This Weekend

16 November 2014   Dr. Curtis James

Cold weather this weekend.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

The cloud cover Friday morning was the result of the breakdown of the West Coast ridge that brought us plenty of sunshine and unusually warm weather last week and early this week. There is a series of weak disturbances moving across the state and a more humid airmass is in place, leading to cloudy skies and a slight chance of light rain.

A stronger and colder upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will dig southward towards Arizona on Sunday as a cyclone develops northeast of us and moves southeast. At this time, it appears that precipitation will be unlikely on Saturday and Sunday as most of the lifting will take place over eastern Arizona and New Mexico. However, expect breezy, partly cloudy and unsettled weather through the weekend. The cold front may produce noticeable cooling by Sunday afternoon, with highs on Sunday in the 50s and morning lows on Monday in the low to mid 20s. There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecasts for this weekend, however, as there is considerable spread in the forecast model predictions.

Expect the weather to improve early next week.

C. James

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Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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