Today: Apr 04 , 2020

Remnants of Hurricane Odile

18 September 2014   Dr. Curtis James

Hurricane Odile will likely not be a major event for Prescott.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).


Weather Discussion:

What was once Hurricane Odile is now a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/171743.shtml). The forecast models have finally converged on a solution for the path of the storm as of last night, and it is fairly certain that the center of the depression will move northeastward across southeast Arizona. Most of the precipitation in association with Odile will develop ahead of and to the right of the storm’s path. Thus, expect considerable cloudiness and scattered rain showers or weak thunderstorms around northern Arizona today, but this will probably not be a major event for Prescott. The projected storm track is good news for the Phoenix area, which was hit hard last week.

The projected track is bad news for Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Santa Cruz, and eastern Pima counties in Southeast Arizona (including Tucson), where between 2 and 5” of rain is expected. This could be a major flood event for Southeast Arizona.

There will be a lingering chance of rain showers or thunderstorms this weekend as low pressure in southern California interacts with moisture left over Arizona by Odile. There will be even less of a chance of showers or thunderstorms next week, and the monsoon begins to draw to a close.   

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube