The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
The remnants of Hurricane Norbert wreaked havoc on central Arizona this week, with between 2 and 6 inches of rain across the entire Phoenix metropolitan area. A number of records were set, many roads and homes were flooded. For maps of precipitation totals, see the National Weather Service site http://water.weather.gov/precip/, including departures from normal.
Northwesterly winds have finally spread across Arizona after the low pressure trough over the Great Basin moved east. This has stabilized and dried the atmosphere. This will allow overnight lows to drop a little lower, and daytime highs will gradually warm through Friday into the upper 80s. High pressure will rebuild over southern Arizona and New Mexico again, and begin to circulate moist air back across Arizona, with increasing cloud cover and shower and thunderstorm coverage.
Meanwhile, yet another tropical cyclone is forming along the west coast of Mexico. Tropical storm Odile is expected to reach hurricane strength along the west coast of the Baja of California. By Tuesday of next week, we will start to see increasing moisture from the approach of the hurricane as it dissipates off the coast of the Baja. Next Tuesday night – Thursday could prove to be another wet period for Arizona. Stay tuned!
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program
Official National Weather Service forecast