Today: Apr 04 , 2020

Monsoon Moisture Will Be Here For a Few More Days

06 September 2014   Dr. Curtis James

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

High pressure to our east and troughing the West Coast will bring low-level southerly winds across Arizona and southwest winds aloft for the weekend into early next week. In addition, very moist air breaking of from dissipating Hurricane Norbert off the Baja of California is predicted to drift northward into Arizona this weekend. Vertical wind shear will be light today and Saturday, so expect mainly airmass thunderstorms. However, Sunday through Tuesday the vertical wind shear will increase and we may see more widespread rainfall and possibly some stronger multicellular or even supercell storms or local flooding during that period.

     By next Wednesday, westerly winds will bring a slight drying trend, but it looks like the daily chance of thunderstorms could linger into next weekend.

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology ( Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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