Human beings differ in how much risk they will accept. Thus, as an analyst I quoted in a recent column concluded, Russian President Vladimir Putin “was too risk-acceptant” in invading Ukraine and Chinese leader Xi Jinping “has been too risk-averse” in imposing “zero-COVID” lockdowns. Differences in accepting and averting risk appear between the sexes. Men
Will 2022 turn out be a hinge year, as a moment when long-standing trends in geopolitics suddenly shifted in a different direction? This week, two important writers, one a long-established and prolific historian, the other a provocative presence on the internet, have argued persuasively that the answer is yes. But there’s one other interesting point
Over the last three months, political journalists have been reporting a trend toward Democrats. The Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, they have reported, has provided increased motivation for Democrats to turn out and vote. The easing of gas prices from their springtime peak has reduced concern about out-of-control inflation. Biden administration legislative victories
The funeral of Queen Elizabeth II and the praise pouring in from almost all quarters for her 70 years of service make a powerful case, even for small-r republican and small-d democratic Americans, for the institution of constitutional monarchy. There is much to be said for having a head of state who is politically neutral,
Morale matters more than materiel. Again and again, experts’ predictions, based on readily quantifiable data and logical extrapolations, have proved disastrously wrong. The phenomenon is seen in apparently unrelated areas in foreign affairs and domestic policy. Examples: Ukraine and welfare. The U.S. intelligence experts who accurately predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine were wrong about
“All political lives, unless they are cut off at midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.” So said the British politician Enoch Powell, whose own once-stellar career ended in spectacular failure. Lately, careers have been ending in failure more frequently. Consider Powell’s native