Biden Remains Underwater as Midterms Approach – OH Predictive Insights

Kelly at 50% Favorability Among Arizona Voters

As Arizona barrels towards another competitive election season, a new OH Predictive Insights survey reinforces the narrative that Democrats are finding themselves on defense. Less than two years after winning Arizona, President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains underwater. According to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), Republicans do not seem to have a clear frontrunner in the race for U.S. Senate.

This AZPOP was conducted from May 9th – May 16th, 2022 and surveyed 938 Arizona registered voters with a margin of error of ± 3.3%.


As concerns mount over inflation, high gas prices, and baby formula shortages, most Arizonans appear to be placing the blame at the feet of President Biden. With roughly 5 months until the midterms, 42% of Arizona voters approve of the President’s job performance, while 53% disapprove. Arizonans also give the President a thumbs down on his handling of almost every major issue, from immigration (60% disapprove) to the economy (58%), Russia (54%), and race relations (49%).


“As the primaries narrow in, whether or not the blame is being placed in the right direction, the down-ticket effect this will have on the Democratic Party is continuing to look encouraging for the Republican party since we last saw in March,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.


Despite President Biden’s lagging approvals, Senator Kelly enters the summer in a strong position with Arizona voters. 50% of Arizonans have a favorable view of Kelly, including 49% of self-described independents. Thirty-nine percent view Kelly in an unfavorable light. But the generic ballot is a dead heat, with 40% of voters expressing their support for Kelly and 39% for the unnamed Republican candidate.


Senator Kyrsten Sinema will not be on the ballot for another two years, but her favorable numbers continue to be very fascinating. Overall, she has a 42% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating. But her numbers are above water with Republicans, yet upside down with voters from her own party. Just 39% of Democrats view Sinema as favorable, while 49% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 49% of Republicans view her favorably, while forty-one percent view her negatively.

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from May 9 to May 16, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 938 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.3%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers.


1 thought on “Biden Remains Underwater as Midterms Approach – OH Predictive Insights”

  1. Woo woooooo, here comes The Clue Train, next stop is OHPI and other “pollsters”.

    Surveys are, and will always be, fraught with participant biases, distortions caused by peer pressure and manipulation of “results” due to ulterior motives.

    We should never believe any poll unless the pollsters provide detailed information on their sampling methods. How do they select the participants? When the participants answer, are there others listening in? How much time to the participants have to answer? What is the exact wording of the questions? Are the polls in-person, by phone, by email? And if the pollsters say “that’s proprietary”, then you can be sure they’re hiding the real numbers.

    Better to just look around you. Here in Peoria, for example, how often do you see external signs of support for Joe Biden? Rarely. How often do you see external signs of support for Donald Trump or Kari Lake? All-the-time, they’re everywhere.

    An historic Red Tsunami coming soon. In a fair election, it’s likely that most Democrats in Arizona will be soundly beaten. So be on the lookout for election cheats, ballot harvesters, otherwise-unemployable Radical Leftist Cash Grabbers and their ilk.

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