In Arizona, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Shift One Day Before Election Day

Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, live-caller survey of likely general election voters. The survey was conducted from October 28th to 30th.

For the first time this entire cycle, our survey shows President Trump within less than 1% of Vice President Biden. 45.3% of likely voters selected President Trump, 45.9% of voters selected Vice President Biden, 2.4% of voters selected Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and only 0.6% were firmly undecided. The two largest factors contributing to this tightening are: 1) Republican voters are coming home to President Trump. In our last two surveys, VP Biden had been picking up between 12% and 13% of the Republican vote. That has narrowed to 7.5% in this latest survey. 2) President Trump is closing the gap with Independents. He is picking up those previously undecided and some Independents who previously were voting for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen. There are now also 4.6% of people saying they are refusing to supply their answer.

This recent shift in the numbers is especially noteworthy because prior numbers had never shown President Trump within less than 1% of Vice President Biden. The shifts we are seeing are also consistent with other trends being seen from around the country.

The U.S. Senate race is also seeing the same tightening as the Presidential race. Senator McSally received 46% of the vote, while 47.1% of voters selected Mark Kelly and 2.7% were undecided. This tightening in the race can be attributed to fewer Republicans voting for Democrat Mark Kelly and to previously undecided Independents (about 10% in the two previous surveys) almost exclusively now selecting Senator McSally. These two shifts have caused Mark Kelly’s lead to be cut down to almost 1%. This is the first time this entire cycle that his lead has been less than 5%.

George Khalaf, President of Data Orbital had this to say, “We have consistently rated the Presidential race in Arizona as a Toss-Up but with trends in the state and around the country being as they are, we now adjust our rating of the state to Leans Republican. When it comes to the US Senate race, up until this point we have felt that Democrat Mark Kelly has maintained a consistent edge. With the stark shift in numbers, we move our rating of this race back to the Toss-Up category. If turnout trends continue to hold as they are and Senator McSally continues to minimize Republican cross voting, she has a real chance of winning re-election.”

This poll of 550 likely General Election voters was conducted through a live survey that collected 60% of the results from landlines and 40% from cell phones.  It has a margin of error at plus or minus 4.18% with a 95% confidence interval.  Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on historical Arizona general election turnout.  The poll was conducted from October 28-30, 2020. All non-released questions prior to the question released would not reasonably be expected to influence responses to all released questions. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.

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