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Hoping for Monsoons?
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06 July 2017   Dr. Curtis James

Monsoons may show up , but not a lot of moisture yet.

Forecast Discussion:

Strong high pressure over the Four Corners region will bring another round of unusually hot weather these next few days, with high temperatures in the upper 90s, possibly pushing triple digits again. On a positive note, however, the clockwise circulation around the high pressure will bring humid air across the middle and upper atmosphere from the east. We will begin to see daily afternoon cloud buildups, with a slight possibility of high-based showers and thunderstorms starting tomorrow. The main impacts will be strong gusty winds (from microbursts) and the possibility of lightning that could ignite other wildfires. Only isolated areas of rain are to be expected this week.

Over the weekend and into early next week, moist air in the lower atmosphere from the Gulf of California could surge northward and help to increase the likelihood of rain to help cool things down and start to bring needed moisture to our dry chaparral and grasses. The timing of these low-level moisture surges is difficult to forecast, and they carry more moisture when the Gulf of California sea surface temperatures rise through the summer months. The current temperatures are around 28 deg. C (82 deg. F), but studies have shown that the sea surface temperatures need to be above about 29.5 deg. C (85 deg. F) for more plentiful monsoon rainfall to occur across Arizona.

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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