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Possible Snow at the End of the Week
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09 January 2017   Dr. Curtis James

Will it snow this week?

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Expect periods of wet weather this week as a series of disturbances moves across the Southwestern U.S. this week. The first disturbance produced up to 45 knot (52 mph) wind gusts and 0.12” of rain to the Embry-Riddle campus today. It should exit the state by this evening, for some improvement on Tuesday. The next disturbance will move across Arizona from west to east on Wednesday for more wind and another chance of light rain showers.

On Thursday – Saturday a larger and slower moving low pressure system will develop off the West Coast and rotate southwestward into northern Mexico. This system will produce more rain on Thursday – Saturday, possibly mixed with snow showers. Little or no snow accumulation is expected at this time. Another 0.5” or more of precipitation accumulation is expected by the end of the week.

The weather should gradually improve over the coming weekend into early next week.

C. James