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Diminishing Chance of Showers for the Weekend
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23 August 2016   Dr. Curtis James

The weather should dry out a bit for the next few days.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Weak low pressure in the upper atmosphere moving slowly across Arizona has brought heightened moist and unstable conditions the past couple of days and cooler-than-normal temperatures. The low pressure will shift east of the state by tonight, however, and drier air will move in from the west and northwest. This will lead to a diminishing chance for showers and thunderstorms the next few days. For Friday through the coming weekend, expect only a slight chance of thunderstorms each day. 

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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