Editor's Note: Father Art Gramaje is a member of Prescott Mayor Jack Wilson's Task Force on Immigration

Here are some engaging facts about US demographics and the upcoming changes in the workforce from economist Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy:

Out of the 78 million men and women of the “Boomer” generation, 25-30 million will retire in the next ten years. The USA has never before seen such a massive transition in our labor force.

In the next ten years the estimated “Replacement Jobs” in the US will be needed:

• 13 million service jobs
• 6 million sales jobs
• 5 million transportation jobs
• 5 million production jobs
• 2 million repair jobs

70% of replacement jobs do not require a four year college degree; many of these jobs (E.g. police, fire fighters, water treatment workers, car repair, mid level health care workers). The issue facing the country will be the need for more workers. “The workers (in these areas) will be replaced mainly by Latino, Asian and black workers and their children.”

I believe that another aspect for our future with this demographic shift will be the excess of home sellers to home buyers. When the retiring boomers want to sell their homes to scale down or move to a nursing facility, who will be viable buyers for these homes?

NAU economist Ronald Gunderson recently affirmed that we will need immigrant workers to keep our economy going. He focused on the agricultural aspect of farm workers and "the $20 salad" scenario. We will continue to need a low-skilled workforce in the USA. If we just talk to the various employers in the areas of service of the town, many will already tell us how difficult it is to replace workers.

But the retirement of the Boomer generation will pose much greater challenges than just the farm worker area. As a city, we need to attract, educate and train replacement workers in the service, sales, production, repair and transportation areas. We will need a combination of both native Prescottonians as well as new residents—immigrants included—if we are to have the number of replacement workers for a secure future. Our hospitals, nursing care facilities, schools, and businesses are vital parts of how the lifestyle in Prescott can continue to prosper.

With regard to immigrants, it is to all of our benefit to have the reputation as a city that welcomes new residents and treats them with the dignity and respect. Immigrants will play an important part of the future of Prescott; our current image can either attract or dissuade people from moving here.

In Prescott, the demographic estimate for 2007 (within a 20 mile radius of the Prescott airport) is 121, 852 of whom 21.66% or 26,363 are 65 years old or older; the median age is 43.4. We are living these demographic changes ahead of most of the country. Who will replace the workers and administrators in our nursing facilities?

The following recommendations from Stephen Levy could be timely discussion points for a comprehensive plan for the town of Prescott with regards to replacement workers for the common good of all of us:

Recommendations for a healthy transition for “replacement workers/jobs”:

• An increase of High School graduates
• Encourage opportunities for specialized training after High School
• Provide assistance for workers hurt by globalization
• Enact more pre-school opportunities
• Provide English learning programs
• Train people for the various areas of work dependant on the workforce needs (service, sales, construction, repair, transportation, production)
• Promote career technical education for both students and existing workers

We should not be motivated by fear, but by a realistic concern for the well being of the future of our town and residents. The reality of the upcoming retirement of the boomer generation is upon us and as concerned citizens. We need to act NOW toward insuring the quality of life us all.

Rev Fr. Art Gramaje C.M.F.
Sacred Heart Church
December 4, 2007

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